During the year, our market experienced several corrections and ups, but nevertheless showed double-digit growth. Tserazov Konstantin Vladimirovich (Konstantin Tserazov), an independent expert, economist, ex-deputy head of global markets at Troika Dialog, told what 2021 will be remembered for and what 2022 will bring to investors.
The year unexpectedly turned out to be quite successful, although very volatile — the Moscow Exchange index showed an increase of 15.15%, and the RTS index rose by 15%. Positive factors were the growth of oil prices, which, according to analysts at Otkritie Bank, rose by 51%, as well as good statistics from China and an improvement in the situation with the spread of COVID-19. In turn, a new round of geopolitical tensions and the threat of new sanctions became a negative. In addition, the tightening of monetary policy by the world’s central banks provoked a cooling of investors’ interest in emerging markets, explained Konstantin Tserazov. The Bank of Russia also raised the rate — over the year, the rate increased from 4.25% to 8.5%.
The leaders in 2021 were companies in the chemical and petrochemical sector, which added 64%. The top 5 leaders, according to Otkritie Bank analysts, also included the construction sector (+48.37%), financial (40%), oil and gas (25%) and metals and mining (+7.4%). The outsiders of the year, according to the analytical materials of Otkritie Bank, were the electricity sector (-15), telecoms (-10%) and the consumer sector (-3%), notes Konstantin Tserazov.
At the same time, the Russian market became one of the best in the world in terms of dividend yield among emerging markets in 2021. According to Otkritie Bank estimates, the dividend yield for 2021 is about 8-9%, among the most attractive sectors with double-digit dividend yield Konstantin Tserazov names the oil and gas sector, the metal and mining sector and the financial sector.
In 2022, according to the expert, investors should pay attention to dividend stories among commodity and financial companies, which can bring significant profits against the backdrop of rising commodity prices and accelerating inflation. “At the end of 2021, the Russian market is still underestimated, and has significant growth potential — if the current situation persists, in 2022 we may see a renewal of historical highs,” predicts Konstantin Tserazov.
12/01/2022